Investors got a lesson in viral economics during the first quarter of 2020. A novel coronavirus (COVID-19) went unnoticed by most of the world as we celebrated the western new year. But as the Chinese (lunar) new year approached, disruptions in supply chains in China started to affect some stocks. Still, U.S. equities continued to rise, with the price for the S&P 500 Index peaking at a record high close of 3386.15 on February 19, a healthy +4.8% increase from the end of 2019.
U.S. equities continued climbing a wall of worry to produce record highs in Q4. Despite stumbling during the first two days of October, the S&P 500 Index reached new highs 22 times during the quarter, including 9 records in the final 13 trading days of the year. The S&P 500 Index rose +9.07% in Q4 and finished 2019 with a stellar total return of +31.49%, its strongest yearly performance since 2013.
Despite ongoing trade frictions, political turmoil, monetary policy uncertainty, and slowing global growth, large-cap U.S. stocks moved higher in Q3, while small-cap indexes moved lower. By quarter end, the S&P 500 Index had returned +20.55% year to date. Earnings reports in July included just enough good news to provide support to the market, but then in August investors turned cautious amid growing economic and policy concerns. The Fed cut interest rates twice during Q3, which helped to support prices of risk assets.
U.S. equity markets were positive in Q2 while building upon the impressive returns from Q1. This resulted in the S&P 500 Index experiencing the best first half of the year since 1997. However, it was not an entirely smooth path through the quarter, as many policy issues worked to buffet investor enthusiasm. Early earnings reports in April helped allay fears of a possible year-over-year earnings decline for the S&P 500 Index.
The S&P 500 Index opened 2019 with its best January performance since 1987, and continued moving higher in February and March, finishing the quarter up +13.65%. This also proved to be the Index’s strongest calendar quarter since Q3 2009 and its best Q1 since 1998. The strong performance that occurred during the first half of the quarter was a continuation from the Christmas bounce, with equities moving broadly higher despite earnings estimates trending lower.
After impressively powering through a wall of worry in Q3, equity markets abruptly began Q4 by falling sharply in October. The S&P 500 Index then oscillated to a slight gain in November, while December ushered in yet another round of sharp losses. Not only did a Santa Claus Rally fail to materialize, the S&P 500 Index produced its weakest Christmas Eve ever. However, the day after Christmas was far merrier for investors, with the S&P 500 Index generating its largest one-day gain since March 2009 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting its first ever 1,000 point up day.