Despite ongoing trade frictions, political turmoil, monetary policy uncertainty, and slowing global growth, large-cap U.S. stocks moved higher in Q3, while small-cap indexes moved lower. By quarter end, the S&P 500 Index had returned +20.55% year to date. Earnings reports in July included just enough good news to provide support to the market, but then in August investors turned cautious amid growing economic and policy concerns. The Fed cut interest rates twice during Q3, which helped to support prices of risk assets.
U.S. equity markets were positive in Q2 while building upon the impressive returns from Q1. This resulted in the S&P 500 Index experiencing the best first half of the year since 1997. However, it was not an entirely smooth path through the quarter, as many policy issues worked to buffet investor enthusiasm. Early earnings reports in April helped allay fears of a possible year-over-year earnings decline for the S&P 500 Index.
The S&P 500 Index opened 2019 with its best January performance since 1987, and continued moving higher in February and March, finishing the quarter up +13.65%. This also proved to be the Index’s strongest calendar quarter since Q3 2009 and its best Q1 since 1998. The strong performance that occurred during the first half of the quarter was a continuation from the Christmas bounce, with equities moving broadly higher despite earnings estimates trending lower.
After impressively powering through a wall of worry in Q3, equity markets abruptly began Q4 by falling sharply in October. The S&P 500 Index then oscillated to a slight gain in November, while December ushered in yet another round of sharp losses. Not only did a Santa Claus Rally fail to materialize, the S&P 500 Index produced its weakest Christmas Eve ever. However, the day after Christmas was far merrier for investors, with the S&P 500 Index generating its largest one-day gain since March 2009 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting its first ever 1,000 point up day.
Trade disputes, political drama, and rising interest rates could not hold back U.S. stocks during Q3. The S&P 500 Index posted a Q3 return of +7.71%, its best quarterly return since 2013. Growth outperformed value by wide margins across all market cap ranges. Indeed, the Russell 1000 Growth Index generated a total return 347 bps higher than the Russell 1000 Value Index in Q3, bringing the year-to-date growth over value gap to over 1300 bps.
Stocks moved higher in Q2, though changes in investor concerns caused the movement to come in waves. The S&P 500 Index posted positive returns in all three months to finish the quarter with a +3.43% total return. The earnings season was strong, with almost 83% of companies beating or meeting consensus estimates, as the positive impact of the corporate tax rate reduction helped drive S&P 500 Index operating earnings 26% above the same quarter last year.